Waiting for the "bottom"? What a national property debate means for Brisbane

1. Where the market sits right now

Cotality's Home Value Index for September 2026 shows national dwelling values fell 1.1% over the month. That was the sixth monthly fall in a row and leaves values 5.2% below their March 2026 peak. Brisbane fell 1.5%, more than any other capital that month. Values here are 5.4% below their May 2026 peak, but still 5.9% higher than a year ago (Cotality, Oct 2026). Activity has slowed too. Cotality estimates Brisbane sales over the past three months were 27.2% lower than a year earlier. On 29 September the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.60%, its fourth increase this year (RBA, Sep 2026).

2. "There's no bell at the bottom"

Panos's central argument is that nobody reliably picks the bottom of a market. In his words, "there's no bell that rings". He suggests aiming to "buy well" rather than buy at the lowest point: a quality property in a quality location that you can comfortably hold for several years. He also argues that fewer competing buyers give active buyers more room to negotiate. That's his view, but the supply data points the same way. Cotality reports capital city homes are taking a median of 39 days to sell, compared with 23 a year ago, and advertised stock has built up (Cotality, Oct 2026).

3. Cheaper isn't always more affordable

A genuinely useful point in the episode is about borrowing capacity. The speaker argues that a home can become cheaper and less affordable at the same time. If prices fall 5% but your borrowing capacity falls 10%, the home has moved further out of reach. His numbers are only an illustration, but the idea is backed up. AMP's chief economist estimates this year's four rate rises have cut what an average wage earner can afford to pay for a home by about $45,000 since January (ABC News, Oct 2026). How it applies to you depends on your income, lender and circumstances, so it's a question for your broker rather than a blog post.

4. What it could mean in the Centenary suburbs

Buyers. Keep your finance pre-approval current, compare recent local sales rather than national headlines, and give yourself time for building and pest inspections. Queensland's rules differ from those in the Sydney examples in the interview. Here, most private treaty contracts come with a cooling-off period, which doesn't apply at auction, and sellers now have to provide a disclosure statement before you sign. Get independent legal advice on any contract.

Sellers. Panos observes that vendors who accept today's market tend to sell, while those anchored to last year's prices tend to sit. That's his experience rather than a statistic. With homes taking longer to sell, presentation and realistic pricing matter more, whether you're in Jamboree Heights, Middle Park or Sinnamon Park.

Landlords. If you're weighing up another investment, the May Budget changes matter. Properties held before Budget night keep the existing arrangements, but the rules differ for established homes bought after it (Budget 2026–27). Talk to your accountant before you act. The speaker also cautions against portfolios of very cheap, speculative properties and prefers lasting fundamentals: transport, jobs, infrastructure and community. Those are sensible things to weigh in any suburb, including ours along the river at Mount Ommaney, Riverhills, Sumner and Seventeen Mile Rocks.

5. The takeaway

Panos expects Sydney and Melbourne to recover first, and a new national cycle to begin "at some point next year". That's a prediction, and nobody knows how it will play out. Some of the claims in the interview stand up and some are overstated. For most people, timing the market matters less than whether a move suits their plans, finances and timeframe.

If you'd like to talk through what's happening in your street, book an appraisal conversation with our team at akaihus.com.